A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
